Coexistence Observatory / Methodology

Evidence before narrative.

Working Draft 0.2 · 15 October 2026. Capability does not equal incident, source confirmation does not equal Observatory verification, and severity does not determine evidence grade.

Separate dimensions

Agency / behavior

What did the agent actually do, and across which boundary?

Evidence

How strongly is the qualifying behavior established?

Authorization

What was explicitly or reasonably permitted, and what exceeded that scope?

Consequence

What real-world effect occurred? Harm does not silently raise the agency level.

Safety response

Prevention, detection, containment, termination, auditability and disclosure are recorded separately.

Audit context

Independent access, source completeness and redaction status are recorded because external review may still be constrained.

Evidence grades

GradeWorking definition
E0 — UnverifiedA claim or signal exists, but authenticity, attribution or load-bearing facts are not sufficiently established.
E1 — PlausibleAt least one credible source supports the event, but material facts remain single-source, disputed or weakly attributable.
E2 — CorroboratedMultiple credible sources, an affected-party investigation, or a strong first-party technical report supports the event, but independent auditability remains incomplete.
E3 — Observatory VerifiedAll four verification conditions below are met. Only E3/E4 records may advance the public Agency Level.
E4 — Independently auditable / reproducibleE3 plus enough artifacts, logs, methods or reproducible evidence for meaningful third-party audit or reproduction.

E3 verification rule

  1. Event identity. Event, system, time window and affected environment are sufficiently identified.
  2. Qualifying behavior. The behavior required by the proposed Agency Level is directly supported by primary technical evidence, an affected-system operator, or mutually corroborating high-quality sources.
  3. Authorization boundary. The record establishes what was permitted and why the qualifying behavior exceeded that scope.
  4. Alternative explanations. Plausible explanations that would negate the classification have been considered and do not better explain the evidence.

Normally, at least one of the following should also be present: affected-party confirmation, independent forensic review, public technical artifacts/logs, or independent evaluator confirmation. A company statement alone can establish E2 but should normally not establish E3 when the company is the sole holder and interpreter of the evidence.

Record types

REAL_WORLD_INCIDENT — qualifying behavior affected a real external system or party.
INTERNAL_TRAINING / EVALUATION INCIDENT — behavior exceeded intended internal or evaluation boundaries.
DEMONSTRATED_CAPABILITY — a behavior was deliberately elicited or benchmarked; it is not evidence of spontaneous real-world occurrence.
DISCLOSURE / GOVERNANCE RECORD — institutional response, policy, notification or evidence-governance development.
PROVISIONAL NOTICE — a credible report exists, but material attribution or outcome is not yet established.

Public clock rule

Current public Agency Level: L0. Candidate records may be labelled L6-A/L6-C/etc. during review, but the public level advances only after at least one qualifying record completes E3 or E4 under this published rule.

Safety-response dimensions

The earlier single 0–10 total remains unvalidated. Public assessment should show components separately: prevention, detection, containment, termination/pause, auditability, disclosure/incident response, governance, and international coordination.